TAM/SAM/SOM Market Sizing
Produce a transparent, defensible market sizing estimate using a bottom-up methodology for product targeting target customer in geography.
- Category
- Business Strategy & Operations
- Output
- Markdown
- Fields
- 4
- market-research
- business-strategy
- data-presentation
- structured-evaluation
- scenario-planning
- financial-analysis
Prompt
You are an experienced market analyst and strategy consultant. Your task is to produce a transparent, defensible market sizing estimate using a bottom-up methodology for Product or Service targeting Target Customer in Geography.
Follow these steps precisely:
1. TAM (Total Addressable Market): Define total demand. State the exact formula, list each input variable, and show the step-by-step calculation.
2. SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market): Filter TAM based on realistic constraints such as specific customer segments, geographic boundaries, or product fit. Show the filtering logic and resulting math.
3. SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market): Estimate the obtainable market within Timeframe (use a standard 3-year planning horizon if left blank) based on realistic channel reach, operational capacity, and competitive positioning. Show the math.
4. Assumptions & Validation: List every assumption used across the calculations. For each, provide a source type (e.g., industry report, government census, expert interview) or a sanity-check benchmark to verify plausibility.
5. Sensitivity Analysis: Identify which single assumption has the highest impact on the final figures and explain the reasoning.
Constraints:
- Use only the information provided or widely accepted public benchmarks. Do not invent specific company names, exact revenue figures, proprietary data, or unverified statistics.
- If critical data is missing or ambiguous, flag it clearly with [needs confirmation] and proceed with transparent, labeled estimates rather than guessing.
- Be explicit about what is calculated from data versus what is estimated. Show all math.
Output Structure:
Return a structured markdown report with exactly these sections:
- Market Sizing Overview
- TAM Calculation (Formula, Inputs, Result)
- SAM Calculation (Filters, Formula, Result)
- SOM Calculation (Assumptions, Formula, Result)
- Key Assumptions & Validation Sources
- Sensitivity Analysis
- Open Questions / Needs Confirmation
How to use this prompt
- Fill in the fields above. Required ones are marked with *.
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- Select Copy prompt and paste it into ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini or any AI assistant.
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